Models of Severe Convection: From Theory to Applications.
4:15 to 5:00 Afternoon, keynote speaker, Rich Rotunno, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Assistant Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meterology
In this lecture I will survey developments in numerical models of severe convection (supercell thunderstorms, squall lines, etc.).
From their primitive beginnings in the 1970's, numerical models have been able to capture some of the very basic features of severe convection as a function of the imposed environmental conditions of thermodynamic instability and vertical wind shear. These models, together with advances in Radar Meteorology, have provided a useful basis for forecasters trying to predict severe convective weather in the 0-6hr time frame.
The growth in computer power over the past generation now allows numerical prediction models with explicitly simulated convection to be run in real time over large domains; moreover real data initial conditions provide more realistic environments for the numerically simulated convection.
These models present the possibility of forecasting aspects of convective weather over the longer 6-24hr time frame; the promise and problems of this new approach to convective-weather forecasting will be discussed.
