New – Latest Area Forecast Discussion
A Technical Discussion for Saturday, May 7, 2022 by Erich Alf
Low pressure to the southwest continues to push eastward providing clouds skies and rain today. This pushes off shore on Sunday and stalls in the western Atlantic for the next few days. High pressure will build in and Sunday and will continue to influence the area through next week. Upper level ridging through mid-week will result in a gradual increase in temperatures reaching above average territory by Thursday.
NEAR-TERM (through Saturday night)
The upper level low and associated surface low pressure continues to spin to the southwest of the region. Deepening of the low pressure with the center becoming more organized will tighten pressure gradients, thus a gusty breezy will develop. A very tight temperature gradient and associated 850mb deformation band looks to stay to the south just off the Long Island coast which will keep the heaviest rain off shore. Additionally, the higher precipitable water values will be out of the region, leaving the area under values of under 1.00 inch by the afternoon. Low level jet winds pick up with a strong jet streak from east to west setting up just to the south and west. An inversion will be in place above 850mb, so wind gusts will not be too high unless some heavier downpours can mix these winds to the surface. So gusts occasionally up to 30-35mph is possible with sustained winds around 10-20mph. It’s also notable that temperatures will struggle to hit 50 degrees through the day with the persistent northeasterly winds, which could drop wind chill values into the upper 30s at times. This is over 15 degrees below the average high temperature. High pressure will continue to suppress rain just to the north, so a tight gradient in the precipitation shield will continue to remain in place. Expect light rain through this morning to gradual decrease in intensity and coverage as the day progresses. Scattered light showers will be on tap tonight with the winds still gusty around 30mph and temperatures dropping to around 40 degrees.
SHORT-TERM (Sunday-Monday night)
By Sunday, the low pressure system moves off shore of the east coast becoming cut off from the jet stream and will stall and spin in the western Atlantic for the next few days. High pressure builds in just to the north of Maine and aid in clearing skies. Except for a few possible lingering shower particularly in the morning, the main precipitation shield will have moved out. Some residual low to mid-level clouds will stick around in the morning but should gradual decrease in coverage into the afternoon and result in partly sunny skies. Conditions will still remain blustery with winds out of the northeast at 10-15mph gusting to 25-30mph through tonight with gusts diminishing to 15-25mph . Temperatures continue to remain below average but moderate from Saturday as daytime high reach the upper 50s near 60 degrees and lows around 40. High pressure continues to influence the region on Monday as it sinks southward, so sunshine is expected to increase in coverage from Sunday with dryer in advecting in throughout the air column.
LONG-TERM (Tuesday-Thursday Night)
The aforementioned cut off low pressure will continue to stall and spin over the western Atlantic for these next three days with a blocking ridge of high pressure developing to the east of the low by Wednesday. Back in our area, the surface high pressure takes full control on Tuesday with plentiful sunshine expected. With low pressure stalled, breezy conditions around 10-20mph are likely to continue our of the northeast. A gradual warming trend will be on tap through Thursday as heights increase with a ridge building in around the cut off low. Temperatures are likely to be above average on Thursday.